Archive for September, 2010

Revenue Projections For Oracle Fusion Applications By Albert Pang

Thursday, September 23rd, 2010

Oracle ended the fourth day of Oracle Open World with a loud and clear message of putting Fusion Applications in the limelight after years of saying little about its heavy investment. However the real story is whether the return on its investment is going to be imminent.

Under our forecast model explained below, the new product line could contribute $360 million, or 10.5% of its applications license sales, to its top line by FY2015.

In a 90-minute keynote, Larry Ellison, its CEO, and his product managment team capably led by Steve Miranda, touted the advanced and flexible capabilities of the new ERP suite, which are designed to be easily implemented as on-premise or on-demand applications.

As a result the product suite, which is likely to be implemented in a modular fashion because of its flexibility and coexistence capabilities with current Oracle applications or any other application for that matter, is primarily positioned against best-of-breed on-demand products such as talent management apps from Taleo and others that have been growing dramatically over the years – sometimes at the expense of traditional ERP vendors like Oracle and SAP.

Throughout the five-day event, the key message is that the new product suite, which will become generally available in first quarter of 2011, offers an intuitive user interface and many tightly integrated features including distributed order orchestration that facilitates enterprise-wide collaboration.

While the expectations have been set fairly low for its early adoptions, Ellison projected only 100 customers would purchase Fusion Applications in its first year.

Under our model that is based on the similar trajectory of on-demand vendors such as Taleo, the impact of Fusion Applications could amount to $10 million in additional product revenues for Oracle in FY 2012, which would be the first full year of its shipment.

Then revenues of Fusion Applications could jump to $80 million in FY2013, using the same growth trajectory of Taleo in its early days. That would amount to 2.8% of Oracle’s applications license revenues, which are likely to grow at 10% a year over the next few years, a rate that is expected to surpass the industry average because of its healthy acquisition appetite that results in considerable cross-sell and upsell opportunities.

In its third year, Fusion Applications could post $240 million in product revenues, again using the same trajectory of Taleo. For Oracle, that would amount to 7.7% of its applications license revenues in FY 2014, which could top $3.1 billion by that time, compared with $2.8 billion in FY 2013 and $2.5 billion in FY 2012 and $2.3 billion in its current fiscal year.

If the same trajectory continues, Fusion Applications could amount to $360 million in product revenues for Oracle in FY2015, or 10.5% of the projected apps license sales of $3.4 billion by that time.

While the projections are fairly modest for a product suite that Oracle has been investing so much over the past five years, the payoff could start having an impact by its fiscal year 2015, 10 years after its purchase of PeopleSoft for $10 billion in December 2004.

Follow me on Twitter @appsruntheworld and tell me what you think of Fusion Applications suite and its revenue potential by emailing at apang@appsruntheworld.com

Oracle Open World Day Two By Albert Pang

Tuesday, September 21st, 2010

Oracle Open World kicked off Monday by stepping up its expanded focus on its recent Sun acquisition and what that meant for its product pipeline, including Solaris 11 and Exadata Database Machine X2-8.

However the raft of product announcements – coupled with new application launches including Oracle CRM OnDemand 18 to offer enhanced capabilities in such verticals as insurance and life sciences as well as Oracle JDEdwards Enterprise One Fulfillment Management within the 9.0 release for optimization of allocation of constrained finished goods – could spell increased support burden for a company that is beginning to harvest its uninterrupted acquisitions through simultaneous product shipments in 2011.

Despite the increased computer bent, Oracle was quick to point out to reiterate its new tag line – Software. Hardware. Complete.

Nowhere else is that point of convergence more apparent than in its Customer Relationship Management applications, which exemplify the amount of innovation that Oracle has incorporated into its on-demand and on-premise offerings.

For example, the next version of Oracle CRM OnDemand Release 19 due out early next year will offer Java code extensions for enterprise class performance and integrity in such areas as security, enablement for both the private and the public Cloud, and easy mobile access. All these applications features will be deployed on the Sun hardware platform and the associated infrastructure technologies to optimize the robust performance needed by Oracle to deliver the end-to-end solution as a hosted offering.

And Oracle is wasting no time to expand its stewardship of Java now that it controls the programming language regularly used by nine million software developers. On Monday it announced a number of initiatives including Project Coin to boost interface support and development productivity. That in itself could pave way for Oracle to make bigger inroads into the applications marketplace by harnessing the collective strengths of Java developers, many of which may choose to optimize their apps on the Sun platform to replicate the performance differentiation touted by Oracle.

What that entails is that support and training burden, coupled with increased channel involvement, will cast a long shadow over its product plans over the next six to 12 months.

The catalyst for the increased support burden is that many of these products will become generally available in 2011. Because many of these products such as Fusion Applications have been under development for five years, its planned GA in 2011 simply coincides with the product cycle of the Sun product line.

Whatever the case, the large number of products – including Essbase with in-memory database, Fusion Applications, Solaris 11, among others – will begin shipping next year, testing Oracle’s capabilities to support them following a string of acquisitions that it unleashed since 2005.

That also comes on the heels of its efforts to streamline its operations. In its fiscal fourth quarter of 2011, Oracle eliminated thousands of administrative and support personnel including many in non revenue-producing capacity and in the following quarter the vendor started adding 667 employees primarily in the sales area.

What is likely to happen is that Oracle will have to keep up with its breakneck growth by adding another layer of support capacity, especially for those that will standardize on the vendor’s full suite of hardware and software products, presumably coming off from other technology stacks.

Single point of accountability from Oracle will be the driving force behind their conversion. Any failure to deliver that could make it difficult for the vendor to trumpet the value of its complete solutions. Already a number of its major customers cited the disappointing performance of Oracle Help Desk, prompting them to escalate support issues especially during applications upgrades.

One mitigating factor is that some of its new products such as Fusion Applications will come equipped with embedded capabilities such as diagnostics framework, error and help messaging support as well as Enterprise Manager to ease IT support burden.

Another way to address the issue is by relying on Oracle partners, whose count has reached 20,000. On that front, Oracle has hit major milestones by constantly upgrading the quality of its channel partners. So far it has added 200 partners that are considered specialized enough to offer industry and/or product-specific expertise, some of whom like Accenture, Fujitsu, Infosys and Wipro reaching the highest Diamond status accorded by Oracle.

Already more than 27,000 sales and presales professionals from these 200 partners have been certified through the Oracle specialization program. Their role is expected to become more strategic given that Oracle’s channel is generating higher revenue growth rate than the vendor’s direct sales force.

No doubt Oracle’s tech leadership position has been buoyed with the coming together of hardware and software to create a complete solution, the next 12 months could emerge as the high water mark for the vendor to demonstrate it can replicate remarkable acquisitions with equally successful product shipments and the associated customer support requirements.

Follow me on Twitter @appsruntheworld for our continuous coverage of Oracle Open World and tell us what you think of Oracle’s ambitious software and hardware agenda at apang@appsruntheworld.com.

First Day of Oracle Open World By Albert Pang

Monday, September 20th, 2010

On the first day of Oracle Open World, two major developments – one on applications and the other on database – have begun to manifest themselves with the potential of reshaping the future of Oracle.

Oracle chief executive Larry Ellison spent most of his Sunday keynote on his vision of Cloud Computing. With the introduction of the new Oracle Exalogic Elastic Cloud machine that consists of 30 servers to create a high-performance, and high-availability hardware infrastructure for anyone that needs to migrate their IT operation to the Cloud Computing environment, Oracle is framing the debate over Cloud Computing to its advantage, which marries reliable hardware and robust software.

However the onslaught of Oracle Fusion Applications, which feature prominently throughout the five-day conference with 42 sessions, was the real software story of the day. Ellison gave a sneak preview of Fusion Apps during his keynote.

With Oracle Fusion Applications, Oracle is trumpeting its on-demand flexibility as well as its coexistence capabilities with such products as Oracle E-Business Suite and PeopleSoft Enterprise. One hundred of these Oracle Fusion Applications will be available in first quarter of 2011.

While the products are clearly a step forward, compared with the existing ERP applications from Oracle EBS to PeopleSoft, the vendor has also recognized the amount of user reluctance from its biggest customers because of the fragile economic recovery, which is tentative at best in many regions from Americas to EMEA where Oracle derives most of its revenues.

Because Oracle is primarily targeting large enterprises with its Fusion Applications, the business case will have to be bullet-proof. Despite the lingering effects of the recession, some companies are likely to adopt Oracle Fusion Applications because of their advanced usability improvement, which promises to boost productivity and business work flow. A number of users including AT&T, Humana and Tesco reported substantial performance gains for their business users after running Oracle Fusion applications in pre-release mode.

The challenge lies in finding a reason to invest that resonates with different key stakeholders, especially those that require industry-specific Fusion Applications functionality, something that is in short supply in areas such as manufacturing, retail and other asset-intensive verticals.

The other challenge has to do with the globalization trend that has already upended the IT environment among Oracle’s largest customers. For a number of years, business process outsourcing has become one of the linchpins for workflow and transaction processing and management among many Oracle customers, transforming their global IT footprint to a lean operation that renders adding and reinvesting in new applications a costly undertaking.

Another interesting development has to do with the comment Ellison made during the earnings call last week that accompanied its first quarter 2011 results. In his usual bravado, Ellison promised that Oracle would be able to ship in-memory database products earlier than its competitors would. Even though he did not provide specifics, the pre-announcement underscores the fact that Oracle is beginning to take in-memory database seriously.

One Oracle source at the conference elaborated by suggesting that the place to look for such breakthroughs is by leveraging the hardware assets of technologies such as Exadata and extending them to software products such as Essbase, Oracle’s OLAP tools for reporting and business analytics. The approach is not that different from that of SAP, which is in the midst of incorporating in-memory database into its Business Analytics applications in order to help customers process information faster and thereby run their applications better. That in turn could reduce or in some cases end their dependence on their core database, which typically would come from Oracle. The source added that Oracle’s in-memory database product could become available by early 2011.

The issue is whether the availability of in-memory database products accompanying something like Essbase would cannibalize the sales of Oracle’s relational database products. If that’s the case, Oracle could potentially preempt its competitors, preventing them from encroaching on its familiar turf.

By doing so, the question is whether both developments – one on applications and the other on database – would usher in new ways for Oracle to make money without jeopardizing its existing recurring revenue stream.

Stay tuned for our continuous coverage of Oracle Open World. Follow me on Twitter @appsruntheworld and tell me what you think of Oracle’s apps and in-memory strategies.

Improving Intuit’s Innovation Quotient By Albert Pang

Monday, September 13th, 2010

For Intuit, a company best known for its intuitive applications from TurboTax and QuickBooks, innovation has always been one of its key differentiators. Lately the attribute has achieved a greater sense of urgency as Intuit’s core markets are maturing and the reliability of new recurring revenues is not assured.

Intuit, which helps popularize such strategies as following its customers to their work environment to learn how they use technology products, is seeking to adapt to the new world where ease of use is considered a given because of the pervasive nature of mobile computing and Web services.

Its challenge is to come to terms with the raised bar of intuitive technologies that have been set by others through assimilation and increasingly acquisitions. Its recent purchases of Mint and MedFusion underscore Intuit’s desire to strengthen its consumer finance management and vertical capabilities, respectively.

This is not to suggest that Intuit’s innovation engine is idling. At an event held in San Francisco in early September, Intuit showcased a number of new and upcoming technologies that reinforce its competitive edge.

For example, a mobile payment technology, which has not been productized, allows users to make a financial transaction simply by bumping two iPhones to establish a simple contact without the need of transponders or add-ons.

Over the next few weeks, millions of Intuit Online Banking customers will start using an advanced user interface that incorporates ad links such as embedded discount offerings and other services from local merchants, creating additional recurring revenue streams for Intuit, financial institutions and other stakeholders.

Another new innovation still under development allows retailers to capture and display receipt information online and on the iPhone, replacing paper receipts with an automation process that could drastically improve the user experience both for merchants and consumers during product returns or refunds.

For a vendor that spends 17% of its revenues on R&D, totaling $573 million in FY 2010, the race to enhance the innovation quotient of Intuit is just the beginning.

Intuit, which derives less than 5% of its revenues from non US customers, reckons that its future may lie in the international market. In one of its biggest moves to expand overseas, Intuit last year decided to go after the India market as part of its global business unit dedicated to addressing the needs of consumers and small businesses around the world with localized products.

In an alliance with India’s Moneycontrol.com, the vendor now offers Intuit Money Manager, a personal finance tool similar to Mint for millions of middle class Indians. Since its debut earlier this year, more than 50,000 active users have been accessing the site every day.

Intuit is also developing Jasmine, a customer contact management app for small businesses connecting them to mobile phone users in India.

Such diversification moves come at a time when its core markets – primarily Intuit TurboTax and QuickBooks – are shifting to the online world where customer loyalty is more fickle than ever and competition from free Web services proves is threatening the basic tenets that have helped build Intuit. The changes are so profound that Mint, a free service that makes money by providing leads to financial services providers and merchants, is trumping the hard-earned reputation of Intuit Quicken, which sustains itself by selling shrink-wrapped packages. Mint is expected to replace the online version of Intuit Quicken this year.

In the online world where Intuit is developing and delivering an array of such connected services to compete with paid or free Web services, the vendor’s ability to drive recurring revenues will largely depend on its ability to safeguard one of its best-kept secrets – keeping its customers happy through easy to use and highly accessible applications.

Recent incidents of data center outages that have disrupted Intuit’s connected services point to the inherent challenges for some of the most established software vendors to migrate their customers to the online world. Microsoft found itself tackling the same issue in recent weeks, while Intuit has vowed to fix the problem by shoring up its data center operations.

To be sure, Intuit remains a technology powerhouse that is highly profitable. After hitting a high of 29% in fiscal 2007, its operating margin tumbled to 22% in fiscal 2009 with the onset of the recession, which dealt a blow to many small to midsized businesses that Intuit has counted on for years. With the help of a number of acquisitions including ECHO for payment processing, Homestead Technologies for eCommerce applications, PayCycle for online payroll and Mint for consumer finance management, Intuit’s operating margin has rebounded to 25% in its latest fiscal 2010, which ended July 31.

As Intuit develops new recurring revenue streams by expanding overseas and going after new verticals such as healthcare, its future will rest on whether it can regain its Mojo through continuous innovation that underscores its intrinsic value – keeping its products as simple to use as possible. The only difference this time is that Intuit needs to assume the burden of delivering ready-to-use products and services to a large group of users and market segments with perhaps extremely diverse innovation requirements.

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